Kenneth W. Gronbach - Author of "The Age Curve: How to Profit From the Coming Demographic Storm"
1. In your opinion, what (if anything) is different about this economic cycle and its long-term impact on small business?
According to Mr. Gronbach, small business is uniquely positioned for a “reinvention” of the business climate. Big business will struggle because they have built on the “cheap and deep” model on the assumption that the market will remain the same. As the largest generation of children ever born into our country is coming upon us (Generation Y born between 1985 and 2004) and appear to be “selection consumers”, baby boomers (born 1945-1964) who have sustained the current model are retiring at a rate of every 8 seconds. Researchers indicate that the bridge between the two (Generation X – born between 1965 and 1984) was too small at the critical mass to sustain the country in previous years and the substantial immigrant population (specifically Latino) filled the footprint. Between the maturing and selective Generation Y, the established immigrant population, and declining baby boomers, small business creation should boom in future years.
2. In your discussions with business leaders, what is the general attitude about the current business climate and the next five to ten years?
Mr. Gronbach quipped that he "had to do CPR" before a speech in Detroit recently. Attitudes are just OK right now. But the good news is that the United States is positioned well demographically. We are the only industrialized country in the world who is still having children. For instance, in the last 30 years, China has eliminated more than 400 million children - more than the entire population of the United States and Canada combined (more on China below). If demographics and the vast informational knowledge of the coming generational tsunami is taken into account, attitudes are better.
3. As someone who has interacted with successful leaders of every age, can you compare and contrast the various generations (Boomers, Gen X, Gen Y, Gen Z) in terms of attitudes, beliefs, and other key qualities?
Mr. Gronbach compared (positively) the Baby Boomers and Generation Y. In his work, he has found commonality between the two in terms of beliefs, attitudes, and work ethic. He indicated that nothing will drive the need for Generation Y to work hard "like the need to eat". They'll start new businesses and find new ways to do things. There is a leadership shortage that needs to be filled, in his opinion, and will be by a changing Generation X, the new Generation Y, and the emerging immigrant class. Small business is definitely the place to be.
4. Competitively, how does our country compare demographically in terms of birth rates and anomalies with China, Russia, and others?
As previously discussed, the United States is the only industrialized nation still having babies. We also have our own resources. In the work of other researchers he has visited with on this topic, China could potentially be on the cusp of disaster in several years because they have killed their labor force through one-child policies. They have too few women and have created a "lopsided" demographic profile as a result. Russia is one of the worst disasters on earth demographically. They are losing significant population each year (500,000-1 million) through low birthrates and high incidences of early death. Mr. Gronbach cites that a 16 year-old Russian male has about a 50% chance of making it to 60 years of age. He commented that it would be a good time for Americans to visit Italy and many other European countries as they are in danger of supporting themselves for the long-term. According to Mr. Gronbach, the European Union is trending Muslim and it will soon be the dominant culture in many of the countries.
